Which renewable fuel is most promising?

Here are most of the alternative fuels which can be considered to replace the fossil fuels.:

Electricity: unless this country is prepared to go nuclear, meaning probably 300+ nuclear power plants, electricity will be primarily generated by coal. Wind could provide up to 20% at probably 50 to 100% premium to coal. For wind to be used, high wind area like off shore and the Flint Hills in KS will have to be used. Right now those are major legal battles.

Solar is a long way from offering competitive electricity to coal, I believe solar is around $0.20 Kwh making it 500 to 1000% more expensive than coal. Solar potential limited even if the state of AZ is literally covere d by solar cells. Natural Gas is about equal to wind but short and expect a big push back on natural gas electricity when people get their heating bills this winter. If we go the way of a carbon tax, expect electricity to really go up in price.
Bio-diesel: Is not economical. If all of the fats and oils produced in this county were converted to bio-diesel it might represent 5% of our diesel needs. Let alone the fact that the largest available oil is now more expensive than crude. Even with a $1 a gallon blending credit, bio-diesel is a non starter. In addition there are quality and corrosion issues.
Ethanol: Might supply part of this countries fuel needs. Ethanol helps gasoline burn cleaner but is about 25% less energy per gallon than gasoline (density and chemistry). Believers in ethanol must also not be believers in global warming since in the fermentation process one molecule of carbon dioxide is formed for each molecule of ethanol. The economics are iffy and the supply is limited. Last year 25% of this countries corn was used to make bio-ethanol and it represented under 20% of this countries gasoline (under 10%). Cellulosic ethanol is still a fermentation process and the economics are dramatically higher than starch/corn economics (which is dramatically higher than sugar ethanol economics). Bottom line, ethanol will probably be part of the answer.
Butanol: DuPont/Tate & Lyle has technology they are trying to commercialize to ferment butanol. Since butanol is less polar than ethanol and more like gasoline it energy density is closer to gasoline, can be transported in the current hydrocarbon pipelines that go across this country and will have improved purification costs (a major cost of fermentation ethanol).

Most promising for me is this:

Electricity.
Liquid fuels are great – we’ll continue to need them for aviation and shipping – but, for most transport needs, electric motors are far more efficient, the infrastructure is already in place (the grid), and, with the coming deployment of smart grid technologies, you’ll be able to charge your plug-in car using mostly clean, renewable sources of electricity. When coupled with emerging battery technologies that can store a 150-mile charge, the vast majority of personal transport will be electric-propelled, as most people only drive 40-60 miles a day, max.
On the alternative liquid fuels side, corn ethanol is little more than a tax scam pushed by connected investors and is more of a political ploy than a technical solution. Sugar cane ethanol is great – Brazil has seen wild success with its sugar ethanol program, but political barriers prevent its broad export. Biodiesel, biomass ethanol, switchgrass and other similar crop-reliant fuels are unlikely to be able to scale beyond the boutique fuel category, as there are serious problems with both environmental impact (e.g., land clearing for soy in Indonesia) and competition with foodstuffs; there also isn’t enough land on earth to turn them into a 100% replacement.
Algae could hold promise, but again the problem is algae fuels don’t scale – yet. That could change, but not within the next 10 years.
That said, as electricity grows to dominate the fuel of choice for most transport, there will certainly be a place for boutique fuels that can fill in the gaps and provide fuel for sectors that can’t switch to electricity. But it’s definitely too soon to say which boutique fuel will win – of course, everyone has their favorite. Mine is the bicycle.

Which one is yours?

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