Only Malta and Luxembourg make less use of renewable energy sources in EU than the UK. So why do ministers still believe they can meet environmental targets?

UK will certainly miss one of the core environmental targets of the Blair-Brown years. The Government pledged that after two years 10 per cent of the country’s electricity would be generated from renewable energy sources: mainly wind farms, but also some tidal and solar power.

Press releases from the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (Berr) still boast of the target, which was first promised in 2000 and enshrined three years later in the energy White Paper. And in a statement to The Independent on Sunday, a spokesman for Berr insists that all is well and that: “Estimates show there’s more than enough renewable energy developments either up and running or in the pipeline to potentially meet the 10 per cent goal.”

But the energy industry does not agree. Senior figures point out that less than 5 per cent of electricity was generated from renewable sources in 2007, up from just over 4 per cent the previous year. This is not, they argue, a sign of rapid progress from a country that that has a far less buoyant renewables industry than Germany and Denmark, although it is far windier.

Despite the impending failure, the Government is pushing for still-tougher targets. The Secretary of State at Berr, John Hutton, is currently consulting with energy companies on plans to generate 15 per cent of all energy – that is, transport fuel and heat as well as electricity – from renewables by 2020 in line with EU ambitions. Responses are due next month, and seem set to recommend that one-third of electricity should come from renewables, to make up for shortfalls in heat and transport. The cost of this is £100bn.

The Association of Energy Producers believes some progress has been made. Its chief executive, David Porter, points out that just five years ago, renewables projects accounted for only 2 per cent of the UK’s electricity.

Mr Porter’s great worry is that this new target of 15 per cent of all energy coming from renewables by 2020, set by the UK in agreement with other EU states, is much tougher. As wind power is by far the UK’s most advanced technology, with the Scottish government looking into the possibility of a ВЈ5bn off-shore grid to connect turbines, it will be the electricity providers that will have the biggest role to play in meeting this target.

He talks of the need to “minimize the cost impact on consumers”, and says a radical overhaul of planning and grid connection is vital “to stand a chance of meeting 2020 targets”.

Already, then, the energy industry is playing down its chances of success at this next stage. Berr can talk up its achievements all it likes, but few in the know appear to believe the department will be able to back this up when the first renewables deadline is reached it in just two years.

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